Many individuals and companies make their economic decisions based on political developments. This article examines an important political event,namely the withdrawal of the United States from JCPOA and its impact on the Iranian capital market. With the withdrawal of the United States fromthe JCPOA and the United States' threats to resume sanctions, Iran's economy had experienced turmoil and drastic changes, which clearly saw in thedays before and after the resumption of sanctions in Iran's financial markets. In this study, we intend to examine the changes resulted from the USwithdrawal from JCPOA, its impact on Iran's oil-dependent economy, financial markets, analyze the spread, and severity of turbulence in the Iranianeconomy, especially the Iranian financial markets using multivariate GARCH methods. In this regard, the multivariate GARCH model (DCC) andanalysis of variance are used to investigate these events' effect on the Tehran Stock Exchange index. Keywords: ARCH, Economic Dependence, Economic Sanctions, Intensity of Turbulence in Iran's Economy, Linear combinations of univariateGARCH models, Multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity, Nonlinear combinations of univariate GARCH models, USWithdrawal from JCPOA, Multivariate GARCH
According to Russian leaders, the traditional sphere of influence of the Soviet Union, mainly Central Asia and the Caucasus, is the first defensive bulwark to protect Russia's national security; Moscow's behavior in the context of Tsarist Russia and the former Soviet Union should seek to dominate the region.However, Russia has taken different approaches to Central Asia and the Caucasus over the past two decades. A closer look at the reason for such techniques reveals that these approaches were purely tactical and aimed at realizing Russia's grand strategy in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Current trends indicate that the Russian governing body has always sought to portray Russia as an oil emperor in formulating its long-term strategy.An actor who, by promoting his position, can play a geopolitical and critical role in the field of energy and exploit Russia's energy resources and the monopoly of energy transmission pipelines as a political and economic tool to secure its geopolitical interests in the Eurasian region, particularly in relations with the European Union. This study will examine Russia's obstacles in achieving its goals in the Central Asian region and the Caucasus after the Cold War. Keywords: Russian politics, Central Asia and the Caucasus, Iran, Ukraine, Cold War, Geopolitics
On March 10, 2020, within an agreement between the USA and Taliban, a timetable to withdraw all foreign troops from Afghanistan, a practicalmechanism to prevent the use of Afghan territory against the security of the United States and its allies, efforts to achieve a comprehensive andlasting ceasefire in the inter-Afghan talks was announced. One of the critical points of the U.S. peace agreement with the Taliban is that it could havesignificant political economic security consequences for Iran; such as the limitation of the possibility of Iranian companies operating in Afghanistan, theduality of the positive security outcome due to the withdrawal of U.S. troops and the negative consequence of the increased instability in Afghanistan,the limitation of Iran's security and economic presence due to the increased presence of Russia and China in Afghanistan, and could pave the wayfor the expansion of the influence of regional actors in conflict with Iran's interests in Afghanistan. Strategies include in the peace Agreements were:• Developing multilateral mechanisms for cooperation with Russia and China,• expanding direct economic and security interaction with the Taliban, and• establishing a joint economic commission consisting of economic representatives of the Taliban and the Afghan government to strengtheneconomic security and take advantage of the economic and political consequences of the peace agreement.This article examines the peace agreement signed between the United States and the Taliban, Iran's position against the Taliban, and the economicconsequences for Iran now that the Taliban took power. Iran is deeply concerned about the Taliban's implications for its internal security, economicinterests, and regional position. Although Iran is pleased that American troops are no longer in Afghanistan and considers this a great victory, it hasbeen more cautious with its neighbor than ever before.To attain the goals of this qualitative research, a descriptive-analytical method is used. The advantages presented by this method include: enablingthe collection of a significant amount of data from different sources presented by different countries, China, Russia, USA, Iran, and Afghanistan, whichmakes the present research more reliable. The view is critical regarding existing circumstances on the impact of U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistanon Ian political and economic situation. This article examines the possible consequences of this agreement by pointing out the possible geopoliticalchanges in the region.Keywords: Doha Peace Agreement, US, Afghanistan, Taliban, Foreign policy, Iran's economy, Russia, China, Muslim Brotherhood
